: Chess has an "optimal" move for every state of the board. Life, like poker, involves luck and incomplete data. High-quality decisions can lead to bad results, and poor decisions can lead to "lucky" wins.
In an uncertain world, decision-making is a crucial aspect of our personal and professional lives. However, humans are prone to cognitive biases and often rely on intuition rather than probabilistic thinking. "Thinking in Bets" is a concept popularized by Annie Duke, a professional poker player, which involves making decisions by thinking in probabilities rather than certainties. This paper explores the concept of Thinking in Bets, its application in decision-making, and its relevance to uncertainty and probabilistic thinking. We also provide a GitHub repository with Python code examples to illustrate the concepts discussed in the paper. thinking in bets pdf github
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